Why the shortest sea route may not be the fastest supply chain

Travel time is only one part of delivered lead time

An ocean service can appear efficient when measured port-to-port, but the importer experiences the entire timeline: purchase order readiness, export handling, gate cut-off, sailing, discharge, import clearance and final delivery. A delay at any one stage can matter more than a small difference in published sailing time.

Lessons from the 2025 maritime review

UNCTAD’s Review of Maritime Transport 2025 describes volatile freight costs, rerouting linked to disruption in the Red Sea and longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope. It also reports pressure on ports and carrier networks from changing schedules.

For a cargo owner, the immediate lesson is not to assert that a specific routing will be chosen tomorrow. It is to establish which service is actually bookable, what its current schedule covers and how much buffer the business can absorb.

How to compare alternatives properly

Measure offers against a common set of definitions. For each service, note port pairs, inland legs, transshipments, delivery terms and chargeable extras. A nominally faster route may require more document handling or offer fewer departures; a slower but frequent service could be operationally preferable.

• Schedule reliability: distinguish planned duration from actual performance evidence.
• Inventory exposure: ask what happens if cargo arrives a week later than expected.
• Cost exposure: consider storage, demurrage and urgent alternative transport.
• Product constraints: time-sensitive or regulated goods may narrow the practical options.

Use scenario ranges, not a single magic figure

There is value in modelling a baseline plus an explicit buffer: it forces the organisation to state its assumptions. The result is still not a carrier guarantee or statistically derived probability distribution. The transit scenario planner takes precisely this approach.